Pour ceux qui sont fortichent en anglais: voici un article du Wall Street Journal?le journal le plus réputé en matière d'économie. L'article est paru Dimanche dernier, et il est passé malheureusement sous le radar de beaucoup d'élèves-pilotes.
Le voici:
Airlines, Battered, Set for Rebound
After five years of steep losses, the U.S. airline industry appears to be on the verge of a recovery, as fuel prices come off their peaks, labor costs decline and excess capacity finally begins to shrink.
Strong demand for travel also is adding to the industry's tailwind. The Air Transport Association says passenger traffic this year looks likely to exceed 2004's record, which surpassed the previous peak set in 2000, During the busy Thanksgiving travel period from November 19 through 29, the trade group expects the nation's airlines to carry 21.7 million passengers, topping the year-earlier high of 21.6 million.
Several large airline operators, including Continental Airlines, Alaska Air Group, Inc., and the newly merged US Airways Group Inc., are expecting to be in the black for all of next year compared with just three carriers this year.
Among the discounters, which now control pricing on major routes, perennially profitable Southwest Airlines forecasts a 15% jump in profits for 2006. JetBlue Airways, which is projecting an unusual loss for 2005, is expected to return to profit in 2006, according to analysts. Meanwhile, seven airline stocks are trading near their 52-week highs.
"We believe the industry has finally turned the cyclical corner, implying two years of continued fundamental improvement, based on past precedent," wrote JP Morgan airline analyst Jamie Baker. "We feel comparisons with the industry's last cyclical upturn are justified," he added, citing surging unit-revenue growth and industry-wide labor-cost reduction. Unit revenue is the amount taken for each seat flown a mile.
"The signs seem to be that the industry fundamentals are improving," says John Helmlich, the Air Transport Association's chief economist. Across the sector, planes are packed, many with 80% full or more, as the industry's total number of seats shrink and big airlines are forced to match discount carriers' fares on the busiest domestic routes.
Paul Strater, an elite-status frequent-flier with Continental, nearly lost his seat on a recent flight after the airline assigned him and another passenger, who boarded first, the same seat. "It was so full I absolutely just volunteered to get a seatbelt and ride on the wing," he says. The nascent turnaround is likely to bypass some carriers.
Analysts don't see AMR Corp's American Airlines, which is expected to have a steep loss this year, turning a profit next year. For Delta Air Lines and Northwest Airlines, which both sought bankruptcy-court protection 2-1/2 months ago, much work lies ahead in obtaining labor concessions, revamping route networks and reducing aircraft lease expenses. UAL Corp's United Airlines, which hopes to emerge from Chapter 11 in early 2006, does expect to post a profit next year, but that plan is predicated on $50-a-barrel oil, well below crude's current price in the mid- to high $50 range. Nonetheless, at a time when a record seven U.S. airlines are operating under bankruptcy protection, there are many signs of improvement elsewhere in the industry.
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One big help for the for the U.S. industry has been retreat of record crude-oil prices and a narrowing of the closely watched "crack spread" of the gap between the cost of a gallon of crude and that of a refined barrel of jet fuel. Average jet-fuel prices per gallon soared to $2.40 this past October from 82 cents in October 2003. But earlier this month jet fuel could be found for $1.76 a gallon -- a big relief, given that fuel is one of the largest expenses for airlines. The reduction in domestic capacity has also helped. Fewer seats give the airlines at least a fighting chance of raising fares, as they have done in other recent years.
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